In addition to considering how to help the Ukrainian military and government fend off an invasion, the US is evaluating options for bolstering Ukrainian forces’ ability to resist a potential Russian occupation. That includes potentially providing the Ukrainian Army with additional ammunition, mortars, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and anti-aircraft missile systems, which would likely come from NATO allies, a senior US official told CNN.
“We are looking at a range of options to help defend Ukraine,” a senior administration official told CNN. This may include additional defensive arms sales, “advice,” and “helping Ukraine be able to stay in the fight against a larger, conventional Russian military presence.”
The deliberations about supporting a resistance campaign reflect an increasingly pessimistic view inside the administration about Putin’s willingness to invade and occupy large swaths of Ukrainian territory. Russia has increased force levels since Friday, the senior administration official said.
“Let’s be clear. Our view is this is an extremely dangerous situation. We’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Tuesday. “And what Secretary Blinken is going to go do is highlight very clearly there’s a diplomatic path forward. It is the choice of President Putin and the Russians to make whether they’re going to suffer severe economic consequences or not.”
Right now, military sources familiar with the planning say there has been no official change in guidance from Washington, and officials emphasized that these are early considerations that have not yet been formally presented to the President for approval. Some members of the administration are wary of getting bogged down in an anti-occupation support effort and have argued that US forces should leave if a war erupts.
US officials left the meetings in Europe last week even more pessimistic about what Putin could be planning, and how limited the west’s leverage is to stop it—even with the punishing sanctions and increased NATO presence in eastern Europe currently on the table.
“We can exact some pain, but there is a big difference between exacting pain and actually having leverage,” a senior US official said.
As recently as late last week, Biden administration officials were conducting table-top exercises gaming out all of the possible US and allied policy responses, sources familiar with the planning told CNN. Top US officials also spent much of the weekend in senior-level meetings to discuss the way forward, a senior State Department official said.
The US has continued to say that diplomacy is “crucial” and that talks will hopefully continue. But there have been no details on what the next diplomatic steps look like, and Russia has been drawing down its diplomatic presence in Kyiv in what a US official said was ominous and concerning to the US. Russia’s foreign ministry denied on Tuesday that it had begun evacuating diplomatic personnel, saying “The Russian embassy in Kyiv is operating in a standard way.”
Pentagon officials, meanwhile, have been drawing up options for how the US could help to fuel a sustained resistance campaign in Ukraine and inflict the highest possible costs on Russia in the wake of any invasion, according to sources familiar with the conversations.
A CIA spokesman pushed back on any suggestion that the program has helped to train a Ukrainian insurgency in waiting, but former intelligence officials familiar with it say that the program includes the kind of covert paramilitary training needed to collect intelligence in a warzone.
“The purpose of the training, and…